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UK home prices: More signs of market easing...

- September 12, 2014 No Comments

British house prices rose at the slowest pace in August, according to a survey on Thursday that suggested speculation about higher interest rates has dampened buyer confidence.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors' monthly house price balance fell to +40 last month, its lowest level since last August, and falling short of forecasts for +47 in a Reuters poll of economists. July was revised down slightly to +48.

Agreed sales fell for the first time since September 2012 and there was a second consecutive fall in buyer inquiries.

"Some of the momentum has come out of the housing market of late reflecting in part concerns over a likely rise in teh cost of borrowing at some point in the not too distant future," said Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at RICS.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney said on Tuesday that the bank may start to raise interest rates next spring if the labour market continued to recover from the financial crisis.

The RICS survey of chartered surveyors added to evidence that London's housing market is cooling off after fervent price growth earlier this year. The London house price balance eased to +9 in August from +11.

Mr Rubinsohn said: "There are signs that the Londonmarket is gradually moving on to a more sustainable footing with a modest increase in the number of instructions coming through slowly helping to create a better balance with demand, and in the process, taking the edge off price gains."

Britain's biggest house-builder Barratt Developments on Wednesday predicted a return to "more normal" trends in Britain's housing market.
Source: Reuters


Yet another sign of easing in the British property market but then again, one has to take such survey with a slight pinch of salt as depending on who does it and how it is done, the results can most always be subjected to interpretations.
 
However, the fact remains that the amount of new housing stock is currently rising at a much faster pace compared to say, 2 years ago. This is especially within the prime areas around London. Market analysts have estimated that 48% of the nearly 23,000 new homes priced at more than GBP1,000psf are located in the six key clusters along the River Thames. And some 13,000 units could enter the rental market over the next few years. 
 
But with a combination of increasing number of new homes coming onto the market, increasing sound bites about upward revision of interest rates and the implementation of capital gains tax come April 2015, these are certainly factors that potential investors (especially overseas) should take into consideration before putting ink to paper on that investment property in London...

 
 
 

The London Collection

- September 11, 2014 No Comments

The wife and I were invited to a cocktail reception earlier in the week organized by Savills to showcase The London Collection - a portfolio of three luxury residential properties developed by Ronson Capital Partners. 

 
The London Collectionconsists of the following projects:
 
1.   Riverwalk
Located on the North Bank of the Thames in Westminster, Riverwalkoffers spectacular views over the river and London. This 999-year leasehold project consists of 113 apartments spread across two organically shaped buildings that have been designed to echo the curvature of the river. Riverwalk offers units of one- to four-bedroom as well as penthouses. It is scheduled to TOP in autumn of 2015.

Asking price for a 681sqft, one-bedder is GBP1.40 million (GPB2,056psf) while a 934sqft, two-bedder goes for GBP1.82 million (GBP1,948psf).

 
2.   Chiltern Place
Located at Chiltern Street, which is often doubted "the coolest street in London" as it combines the historic beauty of Londonwith the best of contemporary retail and culture, Chiltern Place is a 16-storey luxury private residential tower consisting of 55 apartments. The 999-year leasehold project is scheduled to TOP in Q3 of 2017 and offers units of one- to 4-bedroom and penthouses. 

We do not have the asking price for the one-bedder (either all 8 of them are totally sold out or yet to be released) but the smallest 2-bedder of 1,137sqft on offer costs GBP3,600,000 (GBP3,166psf)!

 
3.  The Heron
Completed in 2013, The Heron is the tallest apartment tower to be built in London Citysince 1976. Centrally located at the Square Mile, the 36-storey tower offers a panoramic view of the Londonskyline. The 190-year leasehold project consists of 285 units offering 2- and 3-bedroom apartments as well as penthouses.  

The showcase for the evening only featured the "Penthouse Collection"- these are the bigger units located on the 31st - 35th floor of the building. Each apartment is over 2,000sqft and costs between GBP3.75 - 4.95 million. The 2 penthouses are 4,343sqft (3-bedder) and 6,775sqft (4-bedder) respectively with prices only available "on application". 

Out of the 13 apartments within the "Penthouse Collection", 8 of them have already been sold. And if it's any consolation, the price will include 1 parking space within the building.
 

 
The event was another "education opportunity" for the wife and I:   Other than reaffirming the fact that we will not be able to afford anything within London Cityitself (not in this lifetime anyway), it also reinforces the notion that location is paramount when comes to determining the value of a property. 

And speaking of location, the view at the rooftop bar of The Fulleration Bay Hotel (where the reception was held) was actually quite spectacular, despite this being a rather short building.
 
 
 
 

Foreign property purchase: Uncle Sam's a calling!

- September 10, 2014 1 Comment

The real estate market in the United Stateshas become one of the latest contenders for a slice of Singaporean investors’ growing interest in overseas properties, joining the ranks of traditionally popular markets such as Malaysia, Australia and Britain. 

In recent months, Singaporedevelopers, including Keppel Land and PontiacLand, have flocked to the US, taking stakes in American projects as they seek alternative sources of revenue amid a lacklustre market back home. 

On their part, USdevelopers, including Millennium Partners, have also set up shop here, in an attempt to attract more individual investors for their properties in the States. 
 
“We first came to Singapore and a few other Asian cities in 2009 to market our project Millennium Tower in San Francisco … We’ve seen interest grow and our hope is that it will continue to grow; that’s why we’re here,” said Mr. Richard Baumert, a partner at Millennium Partners. Mr. Baumert was in town to kick-start marketing for the company’s latest project - Millennium Towerin Boston. 
 
Overseas properties are becoming increasingly popular with Singapore investors, who face tough property curbs and high entry prices at home. The Monetary Authority of Singapore said Singaporeans poured S$2 billion into foreign properties last year based on deals done by real estate agencies here, a 43% increase from the S$1.4 billion invested in 2012. And analysts said this figure could increase further. 
 
Mr. John Stinson, Cushman and Wakefield’s executive managing director of capital markets in the Asia-Pacific, said: “There has been an overall surge in interest from the Asia-Pacific in investing in the United Kingdom, Europe and the US for almost two years. This trend has really gathered momentum from Singapore and other parts of South-east Asia this year. Many investors with portfolios highly concentrated in Singapore… are executing strategies to diversify offshore. 
 
“The UShas reached the top of many investors’ target lists of offshore country targets. The markets showing the most appeal have been New York, San Francisco and Los Angeles ... The US markets are generally coming off a low base in almost every sector; interest rates are historically low and the US dollar has again become a safe-haven currency.” 
 
Mr. Sean Tan, general manager of real estate portal iProperty, agreed that the US is emerging as a viable investment destination, especially among investors who are seeking a diversified portfolio, but noted that its popularity still pales in comparison with that of Malaysia, Australia and the UK.
 
“As with any investment, there are risks. The USis so far away; investors may not be familiar with the market so they may buy into areas that are not so good … but cities such as San Francisco and Bostonare not bad as their economies are quite promising.” 
 
Mr. Tan also said overseas developers are drawn to Singaporefor its status as a regional hub and gateway to affluent individuals in Asia, a sentiment that Mr. Baumert shares. 
 
“We have two more projects coming up after this one, so we thought we should just set up an office here. We started in summer, so that’s around June. From a branding perspective, it also helps to tell people that we have a presence in Singapore,” said Mr. Baumert.
Source: CNA
 

Coincidentally the wife and I have been exploring the US property market for the past year. Property prices in some of the US cities are still very attractive currently, with some purportedly selling at "distressed" levels. And if you are looking at properties outside of the major cities like New York, Boston and San Francisco, the purchase quantum can be rather modest - we are talking about the US$100K range.

However, we are not yet comfortable enough to put money in the US market due to the following reasons: 

  • The US market is still one that is relatively "undeveloped" with Singaporean buyers compared to traditional markets like UK, Australia and even New Zealand. It is until recently that you find US projects/properties being marketed in Singapore but this is still few and far in between. As such, the level of education/information on US properties is still low, which raises the level of uncertainty and risks. 
 
  • Although there are supposedly bargains to be had in cities such as Houston or Detroit, these are cities that we have heard about but totally unfamiliar with - especially in regard to the property sector. So although the cost of entry may be low, the prospects on rental yields and capital appreciation may be similarly low. This is not helped by the horror stories of illegal squatting or even burglary (dismantling of fittings and furnishings within the property) that we have come across from the internet while doing our research. 
 
  • The complex nature of US taxes that one has to navigate through for property purchase and sale are supposedly rather mind-blogging. We have not looked into what/how much taxes one needs to pay for purchase and subsequent resale yet, but we have marketing agents telling us that they themselves are confused by the myriad of taxes that are payable.
 
So with US developers such as Millennium Partners (and hopefully more to follow) setting up shop here in Singapore, the wife and I are looking forward to be "better educated" on the US property market.


Highline Residences: Views from the ground... and top!

- September 9, 2014 6 Comments

While running errands at Tiong Bahru market this morning, the wife and I found ourselves driving past the sales gallery of Highline Residences.


The sales gallery is now closed pending the official launch of the project in about a week's time. And since we are there, we decided to check out the surrounding area and see if we can identify the kind of view that buyers can expect to get from their apartments.


From the site plans that we are able to obtain from the internet, we realized that the main entrance into Highline Residences will be along Kim Tian Road. We will much prefer that this to be located at the back of the development along Kim Pong Road instead, as we deem this stretch of road more "exclusive".

 
Below are photos taken along and around Kim Pong Road
Kim Pong Road towards Tiong Bahru Road


Kim Tian Road turning into Kim Pong Road

The wife and I then decided to "emulate" the sort of view that buyers may get from their apartments at Highline residences.
 
First off, these are the views that apartments facing Kim Tian Road are likely to get. Given the lack of elevation, we can only provide photos from a street perspective.
 
 
And this is what you can expect to see from your apartment across from Tiong Bahru Road.
 
 
The wife and I then noticed the block of HDB flat across from the project and decided to accent to the highest floor of the block to get a glimpse of likely view that apartments across from Kim Pong Road will get. This is what we saw from the 11th floor.
 
 
The wife and I must admit that the view is already quite spectacular from where we were standing. Imagine what the view will be like if your apartment is on say, the 30th floor! And apartments of this facing will most likely get an unblocked view of the city area and can probably enjoy the fireworks display from the comfort of their balconies during National Day!
 
Going back to the site plan for Highline Residences, we conclude that the best-facing stacks are those facing Kim Pong Road - #7, #8, #16, #17, #22 and #23. It is probably no coincidence that all these stacks are the larger three- and four-bedroom deluxe types.
 
 
 
 

August 2014 private resale/rental: Resale prices up, rental prices down

- September 8, 2014 1 Comment

Resale prices of non-landed private homes in August rose 0.4% month-on-month, according to flash estimates from the Singapore Real Estate Exchange (SRX) on Monday (Sep 8).

Still, when compared with August 2013, resale prices of non-landed private homes have dropped 5%. Compared with the recent peak in January 2014, prices have declined 5.3%, SRX said.

Resale prices of private homes in the Core Central Region rose the most last month, rising 4.8% compared with July. In the Rest of Central Region, prices were up 1.5%. In comparison, resale prices in Outside of Central Region fell 1.1%.

Resale volume remained flat, with 418 non-landed private homes resold in August, similar to the 417 transacted units in July.

 

The overall median Transaction Over X-value (TOX), which measures whether people are overpaying or underpaying the SRX Property X-Value estimated market value, remained at negative S$10,000 last month, up from negative S$20,000 in July.

For districts with more than 10 resale transactions, districts 15 (Katong, Joo Chiat, Amber Road), 23 (Bukit Panjang, Choa Chu Kang) and 16 (Bedok, Upper East Coast) posted the lowest median TOX at -S$40,000, -S$38,000, -S$30,000, respectively.

Conversely, district 11 (Watten Estate, Novena, Thomson) had the highest median TOX of S$50,000, followed by district 18 (Tampines, Pasir Ris) and district 25 (Kranji, Woodgrove) with S$16,000 and S$9,000, respectively.
 

RENTAL VOLUME UP, PRICES DOWN

As for rental transactions, the number of non-landed private homes rented out last month was 3,539 – a 3.6% increase from July. Year-on-year, rental volume improved by 25% from the 2,831 contracts signed in August 2013, according to SRX.

However, rental prices continued their fall, slipping 0.6% from the previous month – the seventh consecutive month of decline.

The decline was greatest in the Core Central Region at 2%, while prices in the Outside Central Region fell 1.1%. Prices in the Rest of Central Region, however, rose marginally by 0.4%. 
 
Source: CNA
 
 

Highline Residences: Good buyers' interest = Good take-up?

- No Comments

It was reported in ST today that Highline Residences in Tiong Bahru is drawing quite good response with more than 300 cheques collected from prospective buyers since the preview held about a week ago.

However, it remains to be seen how this translates to sales.

Many of the buyers are investors who are keen on the smaller units, particularly the one- and two-bedroom types.

The 500-unit development is being marketed at an average price of $2,000psf but could dip to $1,900psf after discount.

Pricing of the units has yet to be finalised but the estimated asking price for one-bedroom is between $1 - 1.2 million; two-bedroom between $1.25 - 1.6 million; three-bedroom between $1.6 - $2.5 million; and four-bedroom between $2.4 - 2.8 million. The six penthouses are likely to be priced at about $5 million each.

Despite the significant buyers' interest in Highline Residences, recent launches have seen take-up rate of only 30 to 50% of the units released. New launches nearby include the 469-unit The Crest and the 429-unit Alex Residences. Both were launched at about $1,600 - 1,700psf and have sold less than 50% of their units so far.

Highlight Residences is expected to launch on Sep 13, and only units in the two 36-story blocks are likely to go on sale.

When interviewed by ST, a prospective buyer said that the indicative prices at Highline Residences were "a bit high" for a 99-year leasehold project. He would prefer to wait as property prices are likely to ease further.

The wife and I felt that he is being way too polite with the "a bit high" comment. Even at $1,900psf, we maintained that Highline Residences is going to be a hard-sell given the current market climate.
 
But we will love to be proven wrong as always...
 
 

London property remains hot with Asians

- September 7, 2014 No Comments

London property is hotter than ever, with Asian investors - especially those from Singaporeand Hong Kong - and increasingly confident British buyers snapping up units, consultants say.

But although prices continue to rise, there does not appear to be a bubble forming.

Average prices in prime Central London have risen 10.09% over the past four quarters to about GBP1.64 million ($3.4 million), property consultancy London Central Portfolio (LCP) said last week.

Long-term growth has averaged 10.5% a year since January 1996.

LCP noted that prime Central London transactions are at their highest level since 2007. There have been 6,546 transactions over the past four quarters, up 19.34% year-on-year.

Prices in Greater London are also on the rise, posting an annual growth rate of 8.53%, which brings average values to about GBP530,000.

Transactions here for London properties are at their highest level since 2007 as well, with 116,551 sales over the past four quarters, up 28% year-on-year.

"People buying now can see the benefit of slightly fringe locations, looking at them for the longer-term prospects,"said Mr Liam Bailey, global head of residential research at Knight Frank.

He added that while it has been a well-established trend for foreigners to buy in London, new buildings in recent years have seen especially strong take-up among Asian investors.

Singapore buyers have long been keen on London property.

"It's almost like a commodity that people buy and sell... investors here like London as it's a tested and proven market," said Ms Doris Tan, head of international residential properties at JLL.

London developments continue to stage launches here because of the high level of interest they garner.

Principal Tower, a 50-storey, 243-unit luxury residential building located in the City of London, was launched on Friday.

The prject is part of Principal Place, a mixed-use development that will feature a 15-storey commercial building and retail outlets as well as a piazza that could become a neighbourhood centre, said W1 Developments.

It is being jointly developed by W1 Developments, Brookfield Office Properties and Concord Pacific.

Principal Tower is being exhibited at the St Regis Singapore hotel. Apartments range from 500sqft for one-bedders to 2,500sqft for three-bedders, for about GBP1,450sqft. Price start at GPB600,000.

As at Friday, more than 30 units had already been sold through pre-sales.

"It's unusual to have an exclusively residential high-rise building at such a prime address," said W1 Developments managing director Christopher Murray.

The Landau, a 89-unit luxury building in Fulham, London, was also exhibiting yesterday, at the Regent Singapore hotel. Prices start at GBP915,000 for a one-bedroom apartment.
 

Overall, the pound sterling is likely to remain stable in the short to medium term, and should not strengthen significantly against other currencies during the remainder of teh year, noted Mr Bailey.

"As the major issue in Britainis deflation rather than inflation, the bank is unlikely to raise rates."
Source: ST


Much has been said and written about the current state of the Londonproperty market and more importantly, whether a bubble is forming (if not already). While many have acknowledged that the bull is running a tad slower these days - prices have fallen for the past 2 consecutive months - home prices in London are currently still hovering at its peak. If long-term price growth for Central London has averaged 10.5% a year since 1996, current prices are already more than 6 times what it was 18 years ago (if our maths are correct)!

So with transactions for both Central and Greater London being at their highest levels since 2007, the much bigger investment quantum needed given that prices are at their peaks and properties being labelled as "a commodity that people buy and sell", the underlying risk has definitely become greater when come to investing in a Londonhome.   

Having said that, there is always money to be made in any kind of market. Key to this is always the "right" timing of entry and more importantly, exit. While the wife and I do not think that the Londonproperty market will crash anytime soon, we do believe that a bubble is forming slowly but surely. Going forward, it will be increasingly challenging to make money out of this market.
 
This is mainly the reason why we have decided to exit the London market... but not discounting the UK altogether... yet.
 
 

Average price by market segment: Q2' 2013 - Q2' 2014

- September 5, 2014 No Comments

Below is compiled by Knight Frank Research.
 
 
The wife and I have no idea what the "basket" that was used in the calculation of average prices constitute but we reckon it is likely to be a mix of new and resale properties. 

So how does one distinguish between "Ultra-luxury" from the "High-end" segment? According to Knight Frank 

·         "Ultra-luxury" segment consist of condominium or apartment with a prestigious address, offering a generous living space of at least 260sqm (around 2,800sqft) unit size, with a current price of around $3,000psf or higher. Ultra-luxury residential developments are mainly located at Orchard Boulevard, Scotts Road, ArdmoreRoad, Paterson Roadand Nassim Road. 

·         "High-end" segment are prime residential properties mainly in Districts 1, 2, 4 (Keppel Bay/Sentosa Cove), 9 and 10. High-end residential developments consist mainly of a wider mix of unit types, ranging from two to four-bedroom configurations. Unit sizes that fit the qualities of a high-end residential home typically start at 150sqm (1,615sqft), with prices above $2,000psf to $2,800psf.  

And before the collective sale frenzy between the mid-1990s and mid-2000s, the average price of a District 9 new sale and sub-sale units (of 160sqm in size or larger) was supposedly only about $1,400sqft! 

Maybe this is what "more affordable level" means to some Singaporeans? However, if prices of District 9 properties were to revert back to such level, imagine what the prices for the rest of Singaporewill look like.  

Surely it be great for those who are looking to buy and have the ability to pay for the property concerned with little or no loans. But will the prevailing economic conditions that result in such halving of market prices (psf basis) for the prime districts necessary mean that more Singaporeans can better afford their dream private homes then? If recent history is any indication (post 1997, post 2009 etc.), one may not be as hasty in wishing for a steep price fall in private home prices...
 
 

Living 180 University @Toronto, Canada

- September 4, 2014 No Comments

The wife and I were at the road-show of Living 180 University - quite a mouthful for a project name, so we shall shorten it to L180U for convenience  sake - last weekend. This is a residential project located above the Shangri-la hotel in Toronto, Canada. 
 
 
The reason for our interests are two-fold:

·         We were drawn by the fact that L180U was developed by Westbank, the same developer for Vancouver House 

·         We were curious as to why L180U is only selling its residential units now when the project had supposedly TOP in end-2012 

L180U is a freehold project consisting of 395 residential apartments. It is housed in the same building as the Shangri-la Toronto, which standing at 214 metres, is one of the ten tallest building in Toronto. Shangri-la was also the second deepest excavation for a building in Canada's history at 102 feet (31 metres). This was done to create 8  levels of basement parking for the building.  

Shangri-la hotel itself occupies the first 17 floors of the building. The residential component are housed on the 18th - 67 floors and consists of 2 category of units - the "Residences" from Floors 18 - 49 and the "Private Estates" from Floors 50 - 66. The primary difference (other than price point) between the 2 category are (1) Dedicated lifts that served the "Private Estates" units and (2) Higher quality furnishings and fittings (from Dornbracht, Miele, Sub-Zero and Kohler etc.) for the "Private Estates" units. This is similar to the make up of Vancouver House. 

 
Now back to the question of the "delayed sales" of its residential units:
 
The "Residences" units were fully sold to local residents in Torontoback in 2011-12 but Westbank had decided to hold back on the release of the higher-floor "Private Estates" units. Developer felt that they can fetch a higher price for these "premium" units once the building is completed and occupied. They have only decided recently to put the remaining 60 units in L180U for sale to foreign buyers. Singapore is supposedly the first stop of their Asian road-show and they will be heading to Hong Kongin 2 weeks' time. 

Location wise, L180U is located within Downtown Toronto along University Avenue. This is the main avenue leading to The University of Toronto, which is either a 2-subway stop or 15-minutes walk away. LU180 is sandwiched between the Central Business District (where most of the major banks and financial institutions are found) on one side and the Fashion District - a popular shopping area that sells clothing directly from manufacturers - on the other. And underneath the building is PATH - the largest underground shopping mall in the world according to the Guinness Book of Records - with 4 million sqft of retail spaces!

 
Facilities wise, buyers of L180U can expect the following:

·         An exclusive entrance and lobby area separate from the main hotel lobby  

·         24-hour concierge and security services 

·         Health club with heated indoor pool (hotel facility available to residents) 

·         5-star spa (hotel facility available to residents) 

·         Internationally acclaimed restaurants that include Momofuku - helmed by Chef David Chang, who was named Time Magazine's 100 most influential people in 2010 

·         The larger apartments (i.e. 1,900sqft and above) comes with their own "private parking garage" in the basement - they get 2 dedicated parking lots that come with shutters that can be open/shut for privacy. 

Pricing wise, the smallest unit currently available is a 1386sqft, 2-bedroom apartment selling at CAD1,574,600. This translates to about CAD1,136psf. There were supposedly 2 units of one-bedders for sale but these had been snapped up by a single buyer at the beginning of the road-show. The next smallest unit is one of about 1500+sqft (also 2-bedder) while the rest are 3-bedders or more that are in excess of 1800sqft. 


Here are some reasons why the wife and I felt that L180U is worthy consideration for a foreign property investment buy: 

·         Location - being right smack within Downtown Toronto, accessibility and convenience are key selling points. Toronto, together with New York and London, are considered the Top 3 financial centres in the Northern Hemisphere. And at CAD1,136psf (less than S$1,400psf), one can forget about buying an apartment in our own downtown CBD!

·         The gross rental yields in Downtown Toronto averages about 6% p.a., while capital appreciation averages around 8 - 10% p.a. One may certainly get higher returns elsewhere (like Brazil, allegedly) but we consider the return for L180U decent especially by Singaporean standards. Even if one takes a loan, the 3% nett yield after mortgage repayment (interest rate at around 3%) is still not too shabby. 

·         Westbank (the developer) is providing a rental guarantee of 8% p.a. for the first 3 years of purchase -  the rental payment starts from the first month after purchase, irrespective of whether the unit is tenanted or vacant. This provides immediate rental income that is above market average at least 3 years. 

·         The Shangri-la branding, which is an endorsement of the quality of L180U.  We reckon that Shangri-la will probably not want to associate itself with a sub-par project. 

·         We like the spacious units and the view from the apartment is promised to be quite spectacular.
 
 

Now for the "not so good" bits: 

·         As L180U is a "move in" project, the terms of payment is rather severe - you have to put 10% down 7 days after the execution of the S&P with balance due at closing of the purchase. This means that the full purchase amount is payable within 3 months of execution of S&P. And given the bigger purchase quantum (in view of the larger-sized apartments) and a maximum of 65% loan available from Canadian banks (no Singaporean banks will provide financing for Canadian properties), the financial outlay may be too much/too quick for many prospective buyers. 

·         Some market analysts have indicated that chances of a steep fall in Canadian home prices have increased in the past year, particularly for Torontoand Vancouver. This is because house price increases have significantly exceeded income growth. There is also the added concern of increasing supply of condos especially in downtown Toronto. However, the same have been said about the London market for years and prices are still rising albeit at a slower pace.  

·         The wife and I have read about several instances of glass panes falling from Shangri-la Toronto over the past 2 years - the latest incident happened as recently as July of this year. Hopefully the problem is fixed now.

 

Disclaimer: This is NOT an advertorial and we are not helping anyone to sell anything here. So Caveat Emptor!